Key Takeaways from the Fed’s June Meeting Minutes: Lowering the Bar for Rate Cuts

Odaily Planet Daily News: Key points from the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes are as follows:
1. How likely is a rate cut in July: How much support will Trump 1.0 appointees Waller and Bowman receive? Both have indicated they will consider a rate cut at the July meeting, and that the impact of tariffs on prices may be temporary.
2. Observation period may end in summer, possible rate cut in September: The minutes may suggest that "the interest rate path will depend on data released in June, July, and August," and the "wait-and-see" period may end by late summer. The minutes could indicate that the committee expects to have the necessary data to make a rate cut decision before the end of summer. If things go as expected, this will reinforce market expectations for a rate cut in September.
3. Lowering the threshold for rate cuts: The June Fed meeting minutes may read more dovish. While Powell tended to use neutral language at the June meeting, the minutes can better reflect what Powell did not explicitly state: the threshold for a rate cut is decreasing.
4. Clues to internal divisions: Of the 19 officials in June, 7 believed no rate cut was needed this year, 2 expected one cut, 8 expected two cuts, and 2 expected three cuts. Analysts will look for clues as to what caused this divergence. What supports the view of the 7 Fed officials who believe there will be no rate cuts at all in 2025?
5. Concerns about the dual mandate: Previous Fed economic forecasts showed that the pace of price increases will accelerate for the rest of this year, but in 2026, even if rates are expected to fall, the pace of price increases will slow again. There is also attention on whether there are serious concerns about the strength of the job market. (Jin10)