Altcoin Season Index Signals Summer Low as Market Cycles Point Toward Possible Shift

• The Altcoin Season Index consistently bottoms between May and July across five years of data.
• Strong altcoin rallies typically follow these summer lows, especially during Q3 and Q4 market cycles.
•  Increased trading activity and easing monetary conditions have historically aligned with altcoin season peaks.

The Altcoin Season Index has dropped to 29, placing it well below the threshold that signals altcoin dominance. According to five years of data, this pattern has emerged repeatedly, with altcoin momentum often fading in early summer. Each time the index bottomed between May and July, altcoins rallied strongly in the second half of the year. The index measures whether altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin over a given period. A value under 25 indicates a Bitcoin season, while a value above 75 marks a clear altcoin season.

Repeating Yearly Patterns

Historical data confirms that summer months, particularly June, mark the lowest points in the Altcoin Season Index. In all observed years since 2019, the index fell sharply during this period. Afterward, altcoins saw higher inflows and prices increased into late Q3 and Q4. The current index value shows that Bitcoin continues to lead the market for now. The same pattern appeared in 2020, 2021, 2022, and again in 2023.

The green line tracking the index moves between 0 and 100, with high volatility over time. Throughout the past several years, the index rarely stayed in one zone for more than a few months. When the index fell below 20, altcoins tended to rebound weeks later. The chart’s upper band (75–100) often marked short altcoin rallies, with peaks occurring in March, July, and November.

In 2023, the index touched the 90 level in July, then dropped below 25 by November. This indicated strong capital rotation back into Bitcoin. Similar fluctuations occurred in earlier years, always following the same seasonal path. The trend suggests that altcoin strength typically builds as the year progresses beyond summer.

Trading Activity and Capital Rotation

The lower section of the chart tracks volume, which often increases during altcoin rallies. As the index rises, activity climbs, confirming broader interest in altcoins. In all five years of data, the highest altcoin index readings occurred after increased trading activity. Volume peaks aligned closely with altcoin seasons.

These repeated patterns also show that quantitative easing phases have supported stronger altcoin recoveries. Historically, every period of looser monetary policy has coincided with upward moves in the Altcoin Season Index . The present reading of 29 remains near past seasonal lows recorded during June in multiple years. Previous years showed stronger altcoin performance beginning around this index level. If historical market cycles continue, the index may shift upward in the coming months.