The Daily: BTC treasury companies having a weaker impact on price than ETFs, Tether sets sights on becoming the largest bitcoin miner, and more

The following article is adapted from The Block’s newsletter,  The Daily , which comes out on weekday afternoons.

Happy Wednesday! Bitcoin retook $107,000 this morning amid market relief over the apparent Iran-Israel ceasefire.

In today's newsletter, Tether sets its sights on becoming the largest bitcoin miner this year, Paradigm backs a $185 million raise for Kalshi at a $2 billion valuation, and more. Plus, we take a look at why the impact of bitcoin treasury companies on the market is muted compared to ETF flows.

Let's get started.

Bitcoin treasury companies having a weaker impact on price than ETFs

Bitcoin ETF flows remain a strong driver of price action, with a high R² of 0.80 explaining around 80% of the variance in 30-day BTC returns, according to K33 Head of Research Vetle Lunde.

• However, the surge in bitcoin treasury companies is having a far weaker impact on price , with an R² of 0.18 between 30-day treasury flows and BTC returns, Lunde said.
• While firms like Strategy continue to buy bitcoin directly from the market using capital raised through debt or equity, impacting demand, many newer entrants are taking a different approach.
• Despite more than 50 new treasury initiatives launching in the past three months alone, many of them are acquiring bitcoin through in-kind share swaps with large holders.
• One example is the Softbank-backed Twenty One, which built its 37,230 BTC position by exchanging shares for bitcoin from Tether and Bitfinex.
• These in-kind swapping structures generate little to no net market demand for bitcoin, helping explain why treasury flows now have a more muted impact on price than ETF flows, potentially drawing capital away from direct bitcoin purchases, Lunde argued.
• "With the massive momentum in bitcoin treasury companies of late, more investors are attracted to this trade and may seek to sell BTC spot to participate in ATM offerings or fund enterprises directly in-kind," he said.

Tether sets sights on becoming the largest bitcoin miner this year

In the latest episode of The Block's Big Brain podcast, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino said the firm " will become the biggest bitcoin miner out there " by the end of 2025 to help secure its more than 100,000 BTC holdings.

• He argues Tether's mining push is less about commercial profit opportunities and more about protecting its $10 billion bitcoin investment by contributing to network security.
• Despite the bold claim, Tether has not disclosed its hashrate, making comparisons with current top 50 EH/s+ bitcoin miners, like MARA and CleanSpark, difficult.
• Nevertheless, Tether has invested over $2 billion into energy infrastructure and bitcoin mining across Latin America since 2023, so it's certainly putting its money where its mouth is.
• Meanwhile, Ardoino also claimed that the Tether-backed brain-computer interface firm Blackrock Neurotech is "much more advanced" than Elon Musk's Neuralink.

Paradigm leads $185 million Kalshi round at $2 billion valuation

Predictions platform Kalshi has raised $185 million at a $2 billion valuation in a Series C funding round led by crypto-focused venture capital firm Paradigm.

• Unlike decentralized rival Polymarket, Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and legally operates in the U.S., offering markets on political, economic, and crypto events.
• Kalshi gained traction during the 2024 election cycle and scored a major win in court last year to list congressional race contracts.
• Kalshi also supports deposits in cryptocurrencies, including BTC, SOL, XRP, RLUSD, and USDC.
• Kalshi's funding news comes a day after reports that Polymarket is nearing a $200 million raise at a $1 billion valuation.

SoFi to bring back BTC and ETH trading

SoFi Technologies, the fintech company and largest online lender in the United States, will relaunch spot trading for BTC and ETH later this year after pausing its crypto services in 2023 due to regulatory hurdles.

• The company also plans to launch blockchain-based global remittances, enabling 24/7 international money transfers within the SoFi app, and eventually stablecoin, crypto lending, and staking features.
• CEO Anthony Noto framed the move as part of a broader push to make SoFi a leading all-in-one digital finance platform powered by crypto and blockchain innovation.
• SoFi said regulatory clarity from recent OCC guidance has opened the door for banks to resume crypto-related services.

Bitcoin treasury firm Metaplanet raises $515 million through new stock issuance

Metaplanet has raised $515 million by issuing and selling new shares , kicking off its bold "555 Million Plan" to acquire 1% of bitcoin's total 21 million supply.

• EVO Fund led the first tranche by exercising 540,000 stock-acquisition rights, converting them into 54 million new shares.
• The Japanese firm currently holds 11,111 BTC. It aims to accumulate 30,000 BTC by the end of 2025 and 210,000 BTC by the end of 2027, joining Michael Saylor's Strategy in the elite 1% BTC club.

In the next 24 hours

• U.S. GDP and jobless claims data are out at 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday.
• Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will speak at 7 a.m. U.S. FOMC members Thomas Barkin and Neel Kashkari follow at 8:45 a.m. and 7 p.m., respectively. ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks at 2:30 p.m.
• Permissionless concludes in New York, and the Bitcoin Policy Summit finishes up in Washington, DC.

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