Bitcoin Holds $106K as Z-Score Diverges From Past Peaks, Suggests Market Stability

• Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score is at 2.3, well below previous cycle tops that exceeded a value of 7.
• The current cycle shows lower Z-Score highs, suggesting a steadier market phase with reduced volatility.
• BTC trades at $106,745 with strong support at $105,030 and resistance at $106,935.

Recent on-chain data shows Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score currently hovers around 2.3, placing it significantly below historical cycle peaks. The MVRV Z-Score, which compares market value and realized value, has historically reached levels above 7 during major market tops. 

Present readings suggest Bitcoin remains in a mid-cycle phase, indicating further potential for price expansion. At the same time, BTC is trading at $106,745, reflecting a 1.4% increase in the past 24 hours.

MVRV Z-Score Shows Lower Highs Than Previous Peaks

The current MVRV Z-Score trend is forming lower highs when compared to past market cycles. This development is notable, as earlier cycles typically showed sharp increases in the Z-Score ahead of significant tops. However, the absence of extreme readings above 7 implies that current market conditions are more moderate.

This pattern indicates a departure from high-volatility behavior that defined earlier bull markets. Analysts also observe that historical tops often coincided with sharp Z-Score spikes. In contrast, today’s structure points to a slower, steadier progression.

Market Cap Trends Reveal Strong Support

Bitcoin’s market cap has continued climbing alongside the realized cap, which represents the total cost basis of all coins. This growth reinforces the notion that current demand is backed by actual investment rather than short-term speculation. The chart shows the realized cap trending consistently higher, even during recent corrections.

In addition, BTC’s price action reflects continued strength. Bitcoin remains within a narrow 24-hour range between $105,030 and $106,935. The $105,030 support level has held firm across multiple sessions, while resistance at $106,935 remains unbroken as of this writing.

Institutional Presence May Support Current Cycle Behavior

The observed divergence between Z-Score trends and price behavior may reflect growing institutional participation. Unlike past cycles driven by retail momentum, this cycle shows gradual gains and reduced volatility . The Z-Score’s moderate levels suggest sustained accumulation without excess speculation.

This aligns with broader market observations, where price increases have occurred without sharp MVRV spikes. Although Bitcoin has grown in market cap and price, the absence of overheated metrics implies a different structural foundation. Traders are closely watching if this pattern continues, particularly with BTC holding above key support zones.