Metaplanet Skyrockets 300% in Six Months: Why Are Japanese Retail Investors Willing to Pay a High Premium to "Buy the Dip"?

Original Article Title: "Metaplanet, Tax-Free Bitcoin for Japanese People"

Original Source: TechFlow Deep Tide

It is said that the altcoin season is in full swing in the stock market, with Japan's Metaplanet and the United States' MicroStrategy serving as representatives of Bitcoin reserve strategies, both seeing significant stock price increases.

As of June 25, 2025, Metaplanet's stock price has risen by about 300% since the beginning of the year, with a market capitalization of around $6 billion (854.8 billion yen); whereas MicroStrategy has only risen by 35% in the past six months, with a market capitalization of around $105 billion.

Metaplanet is referred to as the "Japanese version of MicroStrategy," but publicly available data shows that its Bitcoin reserve is only 11,111 coins, far less than MicroStrategy's 590,000 coins.

In comparison, Metaplanet has a lower market capitalization, less Bitcoin reserve, yet its stock price has risen more.

So, if we were to simply draw a conclusion that "the lower the market cap of a Bitcoin reserve company, the greater the potential stock price increase," is this logic reasonable?

Yes, but also no.

Making a judgment based solely on surface-level data, this logic may seem fine, and it also applies equally to comparing high-market-cap coins and low-market-cap coins in the crypto space.

However, Metaplanet's uniqueness lies in more financial data.

Metaplanet, Higher Valuation Premium

There are many comparative analyses of different crypto reserve companies on the market, but when looking at all the data together, the key indicator is valuation premium.

Last week, YettaSing, an investment partner at Primitive Ventures, highlighted the difference in market valuation premium between the two companies through a table.

For example, the mNAV (Multiple of Net Asset Value) indicator in the table below shows the multiple of net asset value. Metaplanet's mNAV is as high as 10.35, while MicroStrategy's is only 2.10, a difference of nearly 5 times.

What does this 5x difference mean?

In simple terms, mNAV is a metric that measures a company's valuation relative to the value of its held Bitcoin assets. The higher the value, the more willing investors are to pay a premium for the company's Bitcoin exposure.

So, it can also become a sentiment indicator, reflecting the strength of the market's confidence in Bitcoin investments and related companies. Quantitatively, this is roughly equivalent to Metaplanet receiving about an extra $9.35 premium for every $1 of Bitcoin it holds, while MicroStrategy only receives $1.10.

In other words, participants in the Japanese stock market are more willing to buy Metaplanet stock than MicroStrategy in the U.S. stock market.

We won't delve into further analysis of the other data in the table, but just from this indicator, it can be seen that Metaplanet stands out with a small Bitcoin reserve and a high premium, while MicroStrategy relies on a huge asset base to gain stable valuation.

However, despite the tens of times difference in Bitcoin reserves, Metaplanet has obtained a higher premium. Why is this? Just because Metaplanet is a smaller company?

Buying Metaplanet is Like Buying Tax-Free BTC

One difference from the cryptocurrency world is that a country's stock market is more susceptible to the influence of its domestic economic environment and policies. The Japanese economy has provided a unique environment for Metaplanet's high premium.

In Japan, income from cryptocurrency transactions is classified as Miscellaneous Income, subject to a progressive tax rate that can go as high as 55% (including local taxes). This tax rate applies to gains generated by individuals from directly holding and selling cryptocurrency, whether through exchange trading or peer-to-peer transactions.

In contrast, the capital gains tax on stock investments is only 20% (including local taxes).

Furthermore, Japan has a beneficial NISA plan (Nippon Individual Savings Account), designed to encourage tax-free individual savings and investments.

Under the NISA plan, individual investors can invest up to 3.6 million yen per year (about 25,000 USD), and the capital gains and dividend income from this investment are completely tax-free. Starting in 2024, the investment limit of the NISA plan will be further increased to 6 million yen, expanding its coverage.

In other words, by investing in Metaplanet's stock through the NISA plan, returns can be completely tax-free within a certain range. This significant tax advantage makes the cost of holding Bitcoin directly in the Japanese market particularly high.

Metaplanet's "Bitcoin Reserve" strategy provides investors with a tax-optimized solution. By purchasing Metaplanet stock, investors can not only indirectly gain Bitcoin exposure but also enjoy lower tax costs.

This tax advantage has directly driven demand for Metaplanet's stock in the market and has also become a significant factor in its valuation premium being five times that of MicroStrategy as mentioned earlier.

Furthermore, the macroeconomic situation in Japan has also supported Metaplanet's valuation premium.

Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio is as high as 235%, and the 30-year government bond yield has risen to 3.20%, indicating structural pressures in the bond market. In such a macro environment, investors are increasingly concerned about the depreciation of the yen and inflation.

Metaplanet's Bitcoin reserve is seen as a hedging tool that can hedge against the risk of yen depreciation and provide a hedge in the domestic inflation environment. This macro hedging demand has further increased its market premium.

Secondly, the investor structure of the Japanese capital market is dominated by retail investors, while the U.S. market is more driven by institutional investors. Retail investors are more easily influenced by policy and market sentiment, which may lead to a higher premium for Metaplanet.

In contrast, institutional investors in the U.S. market focus more on fundamentals and asset size, explaining why MicroStrategy is primarily attractive for its "large Bitcoin reserve" while Metaplanet is positioned with a "high premium, small scale" focus.

When Environment Becomes a New Variable

Therefore, Metaplanet's high valuation premium is not accidental but a product of Japan's unique policy environment. From tax policies to the NISA plan and the structural characteristics of the capital market, these factors together have shaped the high premium of its stock.

Merely looking at the Bitcoin reserve amount and company valuation, one cannot actually analyze these contents; the stock market may pay more attention to local customs and practices, where the environment is key.

Policy-driven premium has opened up new opportunities for cryptocurrency investment.

When the altcoin season is happening and it has become a consensus in the stock market, considering not only the Bitcoin reserve amount or valuation, policy dividends, investor structure, and macroeconomic pressures jointly determine the valuation of "coin-stocks."

Furthermore, more small and medium-sized cryptocurrency reserve companies are also rapidly rising, replicating Metaplanet's high premium model, but the reasons for the premium are not entirely the same.

To some extent, for investors, this involves considering more factors and complexity than trading altcoins in the coin circle.

With the rise of coin-stocks, not only does it expand the geographical map of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency investments, but it can also reshape global capital flows, posing more challenges to the energy and understanding of coin circle investors.

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