Circle's post-IPO stock surge pushes market cap near Coinbase and USDC

Circle Internet Group hit the public market less than one month ago, and shares have been climbing at a rapid pace ever since. The stock, which trades under the ticker CRCL, is up another 12% in Monday's trading session, sitting around $270 per share according to The Block's data .

That's good for a nearly 600% return on Circle's stock since pricing its initial public offering at $31 per share on June 5.

"Circle IPO is changing the conversation with mainstream investors," Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley said Monday in a post on X. "2025 is the start of the mainstream era."

CRCL traded as high as $298 on Monday morning, which at the time pushed its market cap over $77 billion — higher than the market caps for both USDC, its own stablecoin, as well as Coinbase, the crypto exchange that gets 50% of the gross revenue from Circle's stablecoin.

"Circle's market cap exceeding that of Coinbase's makes little sense from a fundamentals perspective," Two Prime Digital Assets CEO Alexander Blume told The Block in an email. "Coinbase captures about half of Circle's revenue and has many other business lines in addition. Nevertheless, we don't live in a rational world. We live in an attention economy that thrives on momentum."

Coinbase's stock hit the market in April 2021 and trades around $305 a share with a $77.8 billion market cap at publication time. USDC , the world's second-largest U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoin behind Tether's USDT, has a market cap of nearly $61 billion.

"Circle's market cap is approaching Coinbase’s … even though Coinbase makes 50% of USDC reserve income and has multiple revenue streams. Make it make sense," echoed crypto entrepreneur TJ Kawa in a post on X.

CRCL has become a retail favorite for the time being, according to Blume, and he expects the price to fall in relation to Coinbase soon.

"Although we believe the Bitcoin economy is the way of the future, these wild multiples will eventually come back into line with reality," he wrote in a June 20 client report. "The question is, where do they meet in the middle? Can you get into these deals early and benefit from hype arbitrage?"

Both Circle and Coinbase stocks received a major boost last week after the U.S. Senate approved the so-called GENIUS Act, which would, in part, cement federal guardrails for fully-backed stablecoins.

"Investors and funds that missed the CRCL allocation have likely rotated into COIN as a catch-up play," The Block Research wrote in Monday's weekly newsletter. "Circle's S-1 and follow-up commentary show it paid over 60% of its gross USDC-reserve income in 2024 as a distribution fee to its primary partner, Coinbase. Under the standing pact, 50% of all residual interest income on USDC reserves flows to Coinbase, so every uptick in USDC supply or front-end yields levitates Coinbase’s 'Subscription Services' line."

The U.S. House of Representatives must next choose whether to push its own stablecoin legislation or to take up the GENIUS bill. President Donald Trump has said repeatedly he wants stablecoin legislation "on his desk" in August.

Meanwhile, Wall Street analysts have raised their price targets for COIN in recent days, citing " transformational " catalysts like the GENIUS Act, an American Express-powered credit card, and a partnership with Shopify and Stripe for USDC stablecoin payments. Coinbase is also seeking approval to offer blockchain-based stocks in the U.S.