Galaxy predicts 74% Bitcoin price increase first year after ETF launch
Bitcoin’s ( BTC ) price will increase 74.1% in the first year after spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are launched in the United States, according to estimates from crypto investment firm Galaxy Digital.
In an Oct. 24 blog post , Galaxy Digital research associate Charles Yu estimated the total addressable market size for Bitcoin ETFs would be $14.4 trillion in the first year after launch. He obtained the 74% figure by assessing the potential price impact of fund inflows to Bitcoin ETF products using gold ETFs as a baseline.
According to Yu’s estimates, Bitcoin’s price would increase 6.2% in the first month after an ETF launch before steadily trending downward to a 3.7% monthly increase by month 12.
Spot Bitcoin ETF estimated one-year inflows by month and Bitcoin price impact. Source: Galaxy Digital Research
Yu used Bitcoin price data from Sept. 30, but a 74.1% increase in Bitcoin’s current price would see it hit $59,200 .
Markus Thielen, head of research at digital asset financial services firm Matrixport reached a similar figure in an Oct. 19 post , estimating Bitcoin could rise to between $42,000 and $56,000 if BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF application is approved.
Yu predicts the U.S. Bitcoin ETFs’ addressable market size to reach $26.5 trillion in the second year after launch and $39.6 trillion after the third year.
Spot Bitcoin ETF market sizing and inflow estimates over the first three years. Source: Galaxy Digital Research
Related: BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF: How it works, its benefits and opportunities
Yu acknowledged a delay or denial of spot Bitcoin ETFs would impact its price prediction.
However, he said the estimates were still conservative and didn’t factor in “second-order effects” from a spot Bitcoin ETF approval.
“In the near-term, we expect other global/international markets to follow the U.S. in approving + offering similar Bitcoin ETF offerings to a wider population of investors,” Yu wrote.
He added “2024 could be a big year for Bitcoin” citing ETF inflows, the April 2024 Bitcoin halving and “the possibility that rates have peaked or will peak in the near term.”
Magazine: Big Questions: Did the NSA create Bitcoin?
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
VIPBitget VIP Weekly Research Insights
Real World Assets (RWAs) bring real-world financial instruments such as bonds, real estate, and credit onto the blockchain, enabling tokenization, programmability, and global accessibility of traditional financial assets. With U.S. interest rates peaking, monetary policy turning dovish, and ETFs paving the way for institutional capital to enter the crypto space, RWAs have emerged as a leading theme capturing growing institutional attention.
VIPBitget VIP Weekly Research Insights
The Base chain has recently seen several major strategic developments: Coinbase has integrated DEX routing for Base on its main app, bridging the gap between CeFi and DeFi liquidity; Shopify has partnered with Base to expand real-world applications and user access points. At the same time, Circle and Coinbase stocks have surged by over 700% and 50% respectively, creating a wealth effect that may spill over into the Base ecosystem—boosting both its TVL and token prices. Recommended projects include: 1) AERO (Aerodrome)—The leading DEX on Base, showing strength despite market downturns; well-positioned to benefit from Coinbase integration. 2) BRETT—A flagship memecoin on Base with over 840,000 holders; likely to lead the next Base memecoin rally. 3) New tokens on Bitget Onchain—Offer early access to emerging Base memecoins while helping users avoid high-risk tokens.
VIPBitget VIP Weekly Research Insights
Recent bullish news surrounding a potential Solana ETF has reignited market optimism. The SEC has asked issuers to update their S-1 filings, signaling that ETF approval could be near. This development has boosted confidence in the Solana ecosystem. As a high-performance Layer-1 blockchain, Solana (SOL) offers fast transactions and low fees, making it a hub for DeFi and NFT activity, while also drawing increasing institutional interest. Jito (JTO), the leading liquid staking protocol on Solana, saw its token surge 17% after JitoSOL was included in a Solana ETF prospectus. Its MEV optimization further enhances network value. Jupiter (JUP), Solana's top DEX aggregator with a 95% market share, recently launched a lending protocol, highlighting strong growth potential. These tokens offer investors early exposure ahead of a possible ETF approval and a chance to benefit from Solana's expanding ecosystem.
Trending news
MoreCrypto prices
More
